Future Homes Standard: Why New Homes May Still Fall Short of True Zero Carbon

With the Future Homes and Buildings Standards set to come into force in 2027, the UK construction industry is preparing for a major shift in how homes are designed and built.

But according to John Smith, there remains a critical gap, one that could prevent new homes from ever achieving true zero carbon.

A step forward but not the full picture

At the end of March, the UK government published the long-awaited Future Homes and Buildings Standards (FHS), which will come into force on 24 March 2027 and apply from March 2028.

The policy is a key part of the government’s commitment to achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, as outlined in the Climate Change Act.

While delayed by several years, the introduction of the FHS is a welcome and necessary step forward.

However, it is not the complete solution. The missing piece: embodied carbon

The Future Homes Standard focuses heavily on reducing operational carbon,  the emissions generated from heating, lighting and powering a home.

What it does not address is embodied carbon. This omission presents a significant risk.

Without measuring and reducing the full lifecycle emissions of a building, there is a very real possibility that homes built under the new standards will not achieve true net zero.

What is embodied carbon?

Embodied carbon refers to the total greenhouse gas emissions generated throughout a building’s lifecycle, including:

• Raw material extraction

• Manufacturing and transportation

• Construction processes

• Demolition and end-of-life disposal or recycling

In homes built to 2021 standards, embodied carbon accounts for around 15–20% of total lifecycle emissions.

However, as operational emissions reduce under the Future Homes Standard, embodied carbon will become the dominant source of emissions.

By 2028, it is expected to be the largest contributor to a home’s total carbon footprint.

The UK is falling behind.

Despite its growing importance, embodied carbon remains unregulated in the UK construction industry.

Other countries are already ahead:

• The Netherlands and Sweden have mandatory embodied carbon limits

• France introduced regulation in 2022 covering full lifecycle emissions

• Denmark and Finland are following suit

These countries require Life Cycle Assessments (LCA) to measure environmental impact from raw material extraction through to demolition — something not yet mandated in the UK.

What does “net zero” really mean?

The UK government does not provide a single, simple definition of net zero.

However, under the Climate Change Act, it is broadly defined as:

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions as close to zero as possible and balancing any remaining emissions.

The challenge is clear. Even if operational emissions are eliminated entirely through cleaner energy, the carbon generated during construction still remains.

A home cannot be truly net zero if this is ignored.

A fundamental flaw in the current approach

The Future Homes Standard aims to deliver homes that are:

“Zero-carbon ready with no further work required.”

But without accounting for embodied carbon, this ambition falls short.

Even with the greenest energy supply, the carbon locked into the building materials and construction process cannot be offset without:

• Improved fabric performance

• Better insulation and airtightness

• Lower carbon material choices

The solution: measuring whole-life carbon

To achieve true zero carbon, the industry must move towards whole-life carbon assessment.

One of the most important tools enabling this is the Environmental Product Declaration (EPD).

EPDs provide verified, transparent data on the environmental performance of materials across their entire lifecycle, allowing:

• Accurate comparison between materials

• Better-informed specification decisions

• Measurable reductions in embodied carbon

At Donaldson Timber Systems, this approach is already in place.

The business was the first timber frame manufacturer to publish an EPD for an offsite assembled timber frame wall panel providing clear, evidence-based sustainability data.

Why timber frame is part of the answer

When embodied carbon is factored into the equation, timber frame construction offers a clear advantage.

Life cycle studies show:

• Around 40% lower emissions compared to concrete

• Around 30% lower emissions compared to steel

Timber also actively contributes to carbon reduction through carbon sequestration, absorbing CO₂ as trees grow and storing it within the building for its lifetime.

This makes timber not just a lower-carbon material  but part of the solution.

Delivering performance from the factory

Advanced offsite systems, such as the Sigma® II closed panel solution, are designed to meet Future Homes Standard fabric requirements from the factory. This delivers:

• High levels of insulation and airtightness

• Consistent, repeatable performance

• Reduced on-site variability

• Lower embodied carbon

Crucially, it ensures performance is designed, manufactured and delivered not left to chance on site.

The path to true zero carbon homes

The Future Homes Standard is an important milestone but it is not the final destination.

To truly achieve net zero in housing, the industry must:

• Measure embodied carbon as standard

• Regulate whole-life carbon emissions

• Prioritise low-carbon materials and systems

• Adopt more efficient, controlled methods of construction

Without this, the UK risks building homes that are “zero carbon in use” but not in reality.

Conclusion

With sustainability targets tightening, housing demand rising and environmental pressures increasing, the stakes have never been higher.

If embodied carbon is not brought into the equation and into regulation, the goal of true zero carbon homes will remain out of reach.

The solution is clear: measure everything, reduce everything, and build smarter from the start.

If you’re ready to speak to our team about your next project, please get in touch.

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